Pipsgrowth EX18015 TrendFollow

EX18015 is a USDJPY-tuned trend-following EA that scores a closed bar against four independent momentum/trend readings and only fires when at least three of them line up on the same side. The decision happens entirely on the freshly-closed bar (shift=1 in the source), so the EA does not repaint on the live tick and the on-chart dashboard does not refresh on every quote.

The four votes are: a custom inlined Hull Moving Average, a MACD(12,26,9) main/signal cross plus zero-line test, and an RSI(14) side-of-50 test. The Hull is built from two linear-weighted moving averages (one of period 14, one of period 7), differenced, then re-weighted by a triangular sqrt(14) approximately 4-tap LWMA — a real Hull construction, not a one-line iMA call. The MACD vote has two components (main>signal AND main>0 for a buy) and the RSI vote is binary (>50 = buy, <50 = sell), so the confluence is genuinely four independent sub-signals. A buy needs InpMinConfluence of the four (default 3) and must beat the bear count, with the resulting confidence stored as a 25/50/75/100 percentage that the dashboard prints.

Regime is a separate 7-state classifier that runs once per tick. STRONG_TREND requires ADX(14) >= 30, WEAK_TREND requires ADX >= the user-defined InpAdxThreshold (default 20), COMPRESS is a 10%+ Bollinger Band width contraction, EXPAND is a 10%+ expansion, BREAKOUT requires the current ATR to be >= 1.2x the previous bar's ATR, and RANGE is the default fallback. ATR(14) percentile is computed across a 100-bar lookback window; if percentile > 80 and ADX has dropped below 18, the classifier overrides the current state to CHOPPY. The CHOPPY and COMPRESS states veto entries outright, which keeps the EA out of the flat markets where trend systems bleed equity.

Confirmation is a three-part gate that runs after the signal votes. (1) The higher-timeframe H1 EMA(50) vs EMA(200) must agree with the trade direction — a buy needs fast>slow, a sell needs fast<slow, no exceptions. (2) The current spread must be <= InpMaxSpreadPts (default 35 points). (3) ATR percentile must sit in a 15-95 band — too quiet or too spiky both fail. All three must pass for ConfirmPass() to return true.

The NO-TRADE block is the safety layer. It rejects entries when: the kill switch is on, effective capital is below the $50 floor, peak-to-trough drawdown has hit 25%, a 5-bar cooldown is in force after 3 consecutive losses, today's 10-trade daily cap is full, the realized daily loss has crossed 3% of effective capital, the realized weekly loss has crossed 9% of effective capital, the open-position count is at the InpMaxConcurrent cap (default 1), or the server clock is inside the weekend guard (Saturday/Sunday all day, Friday 22:00 onward, Monday before 02:00). The 9% weekly limit is the tightest in the EX18 family and is the single biggest structural difference between EX18015 and the otherwise similar 4-vote EX18011.

Position management runs every tick for each open ticket. Stop loss is InpAtrSlMult x ATR(14) = 1.8xATR by default; take profit is InpMinRR x SL = 1.5R, so a 1:1.5 R:R ratio (TP at 2.7xATR). Lot size is computed from the risk formula effCap * 0.5% / lossPerLot, floored to the symbol's LotsStep() and clamped by the 5-lot hard cap. Once price reaches +1.0R, TryModify_EX18015 ratchets the stop to breakeven plus a 2-pip buffer (one-shot, never tightens further by itself). At +1.5R, TryClosePartial_EX18015 closes 50% of the position to lock half the move. After +1.0R, the trailing stop kicks in at 2.0xATR behind price, with TryModify_EX18015 only ever moving the SL forward.

There are two hard exits besides SL/TP. The regime-flip exit calls RegimeDetect() and HullColor() again on the open position; if the regime is still STRONG_TREND but the Hull color has flipped, the position is closed immediately — this is the EA's "trend is broken" exit. The time exit closes any position that has been open for MAX_BARS_IN_TRADE = 200 bars (about 50 hours on M15) regardless of P&L, which prevents the EA from carrying a dead trade through a weekend or news cycle.

Pyramiding is off by default (InpPyramidEnabled = false). If the user enables it, up to 3 adds are allowed, each spaced PYRAMID_ATR_SPACING x ATR(14) = 1.5xATR beyond the previous entry, with the same SL/TP formula and risk sizing as the initial position. The 1-concurrent default in the safety layer means that with pyramid off, only one position at a time is allowed; with pyramid on, up to 3 same-direction positions can be open.

The OnTester custom criterion is (netProfit * profitFactor) / (1 + relativeDrawdown) with a 30-trade minimum floor — strategies that pass the gate with low trade counts or negative PF are auto-rejected by the optimizer. Order sends use trade.SetDeviationInPoints(20) and one retry on requote/timeout/price-changed, which is the standard EX18 retry pattern.

What to expect in backtest: with default confluence=3 and 1-concurrent cap, EX18015 trades less often than a 2-vote system, but each trade carries a 1:1.5 R:R and the 50%-partial at +1.5R means the average realized R is structurally positive on winners. The biggest performance lever is InpAdxThreshold — lowering it to 15 turns on more signals but also lets the EA trade in WEAK_TREND that would otherwise be filtered. The 9% weekly cap will halt the EA for the rest of the week after a bad Monday, so expect clustering of trades early in the week and silence from Thursday onward in drawdowns.